Data Scientist Salary in Surprise, AZ: Median $97,457 in 2026
Surprise (AZ) · COL index 100 · Unemployment 3.4% · Metro pop 148,000 · Rank #134 of 283 for Data Scientist salary
A Data Scientist in Surprise earns an estimated median of $97,457 per year. That figure starts from the Arizona state-level BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics median[1]($98,180) and scales it by Surprise's composite cost-of-living index of 100 (US = 100). The 10th percentile comes in around $48,818; the 90th percentile reaches $161,601. After federal, Arizona state, and FICA taxes, a single-filer Data Scientist takes home approximately $75,052/year — about $6,254/month or $2,887 every other week.
Compared to the national Data Scientist median of $112,590, Surprise pays -13.4%. Relative to the Surprise median household income of $79,500, a Data Scientistsalary runs +22.6%. Local unemployment is 3.4%[3], with an estimated 15 annual Data Scientist openings inferred from metro population share and national employment (233,440).
Data Scientist Snapshot — Surprise (2026)
Every row cites a primary public dataset. Rent + home values use Zillow where the metro is in the ZHVI/ZORI coverage set; otherwise ACS + census tract fallbacks.
| Metric | Surprise | National | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Scientist median salary | $97,457 | $112,590 | [1] |
| 10th percentile | $48,818 | $82,560 | [1] |
| 90th percentile | $161,601 | $190,530 | [1] |
| Annual take-home (single filer) | $75,052 | — | [8][10] |
| Median home value (ZHVI) | $395,000 | — | [5] |
| Median rent (ZORI) | $1,550/mo | — | [5] |
| HUD Fair Market Rent (2BR) | $1,425/mo | — | [6] |
| Median household income (ACS) | $79,500 | — | [7] |
| Cost-of-living index | 100.0 | 100.0 | [4] |
| Unemployment rate | 3.4% | — | [3] |
How Data Scientist Salaries Work in Surprise
City-level wages aren't published directly by BLS for most SOC codes. We build them by anchoring to the Arizona state-level OEWS median ($98,180) and scaling by Surprise's composite cost-of-living index (100)[1][4]. That index combines Census ACS rent, Zillow ZHVI, BLS CPI, and AdvisorSmith / ApartmentAdvisor inputs to produce one number per metro. When BLS publishes a separate metro-level wage (MSA-level OEWS), that takes priority — a handful of large metros including New York, LA, Chicago, and DC have this coverage.
On top of the gross wage, the standard US payroll stack applies: federal income tax using 2025 IRS brackets and the $15,000 single standard deduction[8], FICA (Social Security 6.2% up to $176,100 wage base + Medicare 1.45%)[9], and Arizona state income tax at a 2.1% effective rate ($2,061/yr on the $97,457 median)[10].
Surprise also sits inside a larger metro labor market where commute patterns, remote-work policies, and adjacent-metro wages compete. A tight labor market (unemployment below 4%) gives candidates pricing power in negotiations. Median household income in the metro is $79,500, which frames what "a good Data Scientist salary" means locally: a $$97,457 wage pays about 123% of the median household income on a single earner.
The deterministic identity: take_home = gross − federal − state − FICA − pre_tax. All math runs client-side; nothing is sent to our servers.
Cost of Living Breakdown — Surprise
Estimated annual expense shares on a $75,052 take-home, using BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey baseline shares scaled to Surprise's COL index of 100. Housing uses the actual median rent.
BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey shares[1], scaled by Surprise's COL index of 100[4]. Housing uses actual median rent of $1,550/month.
Salary vs Housing Affordability in Surprise
Renting
Buying
At $6,254/mo take-home, the 30% rent rule caps housing at $1,876/mo. Surprise's typical 1–2BR rent runs $1,550/mo[5] (HUD 2BR FMR: $1,425/mo), making rent very affordable on a median Data Scientist salary. For homebuyers, the 4.1× price-to-income ratio is workable with a strong credit profile and manageable other debts.
How Surprise Stacks Up for Data Scientists
Against 283 major US cities: Surprise ranks #134 for nominal Data Scientist salary, #240 for rent affordability, and #150 for overall purchasing power. High cost of living absorbs much of Surprise's nominal wage premium. Data Scientists here often trade pay for lifestyle, proximity to employers, or family roots — consider nearby metros on a salary-to-COL basis.
Nearby Cities — Data Scientist Salary Comparison
Surprise's closest metros, scaled by each city's cost-of-living index. Useful for relocation decisions where commute or remote-work policies allow a neighboring metro trade-off.
| City | Est. salary | COL | Rent | vs AZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surprise, AZ ★ | $97,457 | 100 | $1,550 | — |
| Phoenix, AZ | $119,345 | 106 | $1,150 | +22.5% |
| Tucson, AZ | $102,457 | 91 | $868 | +5.1% |
| Scottsdale, AZ | $132,856 | 118 | $2,100 | +36.3% |
| Gilbert, AZ | $121,597 | 108 | $1,750 | +24.8% |
| Chandler, AZ | $119,345 | 106 | $1,700 | +22.5% |
Data Scientist Job Market in Surprise
Surprise has an estimated 15 annual Data Scientistopenings, extrapolated from the metro's share of 233,440 national Data Scientists[1]. The 3.4% unemployment rate[3] signals a competitive labor market where skilled professionals can push for top-of-band offers.
About the profession: Data scientists analyze and interpret complex datasets to help organizations make data-driven decisions. The field is experiencing explosive growth driven by AI and machine learning demand. Typical entry requirement: master's degree. This is one of the fastest-growing US occupations — 36% projected through 2034[2].
Career Progression & Related Professions in Surprise
Early-career Data Scientists in Surprise start around $48,818, reach the city median ($97,457) after 4–8 years, and hit 90th-percentile territory ($161,601) at senior / specialized levels.
Related technology professions in Surprise
Calculators for Data Scientists in Surprise
Other professions in Surprise
Frequently Asked Questions — Data Scientist in Surprise
How much does a Data Scientist make in Surprise, AZ?
The estimated median salary for a Data Scientist in Surprise is $97,457/year, scaled from the BLS OEWS Arizona state median ($98,180) by Surprise's composite cost-of-living index of 100 (US = 100). After federal, Arizona state, and FICA taxes, take-home is approximately $75,052/year or $6,254/month.
Can a Data Scientist afford to live in Surprise?
On $6,254/month take-home, the 30% rent rule affords $1,876/month. Surprise's Zillow ZORI median rent is $1,550/mo, HUD's 2BR Fair Market Rent is $1,425/mo. The rent-to-income ratio works out to 19.1%, making housing very affordable for a Data Scientist at the local median. Home-buyers face 4.1× price-to-income, needing roughly 4.1 years to save a 20% down payment at a 20% savings rate.
How much tax does a Data Scientist pay in Surprise?
On $97,457 gross, a Data Scientist in Surprise pays approximately $12,889 in federal income tax (13.2% effective), $2,061 in Arizona state income tax (2.1% effective), and $7,455 in FICA (Social Security + Medicare). Total effective rate: 23.0%. Some Arizona cities levy local income taxes in addition; check your municipal DoR before filing.
How does Surprise rank for Data Scientist salaries vs other cities?
Surprise ranks #134 out of 283 tracked metros for nominal Data Scientist salary, #240 for rent affordability (rent-to-income), and #150 for purchasing power (salary ÷ COL). The high-purchasing-power cities tend to be mid-size metros with strong local employers and moderate housing costs; the low-ranked cities trade high nominal pay for steep rents.
What is the cost-of-living breakdown for a Data Scientist in Surprise?
On $75,052 take-home, a reasonable baseline budget for Surprise looks like: housing $18,600/yr (24.8%); food $9,006/yr; transportation $7,505/yr; healthcare $5,254/yr; utilities $3,753/yr; savings + discretionary $30,934/yr. Numbers use BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey shares scaled to Surprise's COL index of 100 and the city's actual median rent.
What's the Data Scientist job market like in Surprise?
Surprise's unemployment rate is 3.4% across the metro of 148,000. Estimated annual Data Scientist openings: ~15 (extrapolated from 233,440 nationally employed and the metro's population share). The tight labor market favors candidates in salary negotiations.
Do Surprise employers pay above or below the Arizona median for Data Scientists?
Not consistently — Surprise's estimated Data Scientist median of $97,457 is 13.4% below the national median. The trade-off is usually lower rents and (in some cases) lower state taxes, which can leave real purchasing power competitive.
Methodology — How we compute this page
Wage estimate. The Surprise median is derived from the Arizona state-level BLS OEWS median ($98,180), scaled by Surprise's composite cost-of-living index of 100. When BLS publishes a direct MSA-level wage for the occupation, that takes priority over the scaled state median. Percentile bands inherit the same scale factor.
Housing + rent. Median home value uses Zillow ZHVI; median rent prefers Zillow ZORI and falls back to Census ACS median gross rent. HUD Fair Market Rents (50th-percentile 2BR) are shown where HUD publishes the metro. Price-to-income and rent-to-income ratios use the estimated Data Scientistmedian (not the city's overall median household income) — to reflect the specific role-vs-city affordability picture.
Tax math. Federal tax uses 2025 IRS brackets and the $15,000 single standard deduction. FICA is Social Security 6.2% up to the $176,100 wage base + Medicare 1.45% (+ 0.9% Additional Medicare above $200,000). State tax uses Arizona's 2026 brackets from the state DoR (mirrored via Tax Foundation where the DoR's publication is paywalled or split). Local income taxes (e.g. NYC, Portland-OR supplemental, OH municipal) are NOT included — check your municipal authority for specifics.
Cost of living. The 100index is the composite used by CalcFi's /data/cities.ts, which merges Census ACS, BLS CPI shelter, Zillow ZORI, and commercial COL estimators. The COL-adjusted salary on this page assumes the statewide RPP = 100.7(BEA) approximates the state's purchasing power; cities are then scaled relative to that.
Refresh cadence. BLS OEWS releases annually (typically March); BEA RPP releases annually in December; IRS brackets adjust in October; Zillow ZHVI/ZORI updates monthly; HUD FMR publishes annually in August for the upcoming fiscal year. The dateModified shown above auto-bumps to the most recent retrievedAt on any sourced value the page consumes.
Known limits. Metro-level OEWS coverage is partial — only ~50 large MSAs have separately published occupation wages; the rest inherit state-level estimates scaled by COL. Rent and home data may trail the real-time market by 1–3 months (Zillow) or 8–12 months (ACS). Rankings are capped to the city set in our dataset (283 metros), not every incorporated US city.
Sources
Every number on this page cites a primary public dataset. Last reviewed (auto-bumped on the next ISR refresh after an ETL run).
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) — state-level occupational wages — www.bls.gov/oes. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- BLS Employment Projections — 2024–34 occupational growth rates — www.bls.gov/emp. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics — metro-level unemployment rate — www.bls.gov/lau. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis — Regional Price Parities (state + metro) — www.bea.gov/data/prices-inflation/regional-price-parities-state-and-metro-area. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- Zillow Research — ZHVI (home value index) + ZORI (observed rent index) — www.zillow.com/research/data. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- HUD Fair Market Rents — 50th-percentile 2-bedroom FY — www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- U.S. Census Bureau — American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates, metro level — www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- Internal Revenue Service — Federal individual income tax brackets and standard deductions — www.irs.gov/forms-pubs/about-publication-17. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- Social Security Administration — OASDI / Medicare contribution and wage-base rules — www.ssa.gov. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
- Arizona Department of Revenue — 2026 individual income tax brackets (accessed via Tax Foundation mirror) — taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/state-income-tax-rates. Retrieved 2026-04-19.
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