A common misconception: "The Fed cut rates, so mortgage rates will drop." In practice, mortgage rates and the Fed funds rate have only a loose historical relationship (correlation ~0.6 over 25 years), and mortgages are much more directly driven by the 10-year Treasury yield.
The Fed funds rate sets the price of overnight lending between banks. Mortgage rates reflect long-duration borrowing. The two can diverge significantly — and often do. During aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2001, 2008, and 2020, mortgage rates sometimes moved only modestly or even briefly rose as Treasury yields reacted to growth expectations rather than policy moves.
Takeaway: if you're timing a mortgage decision around a Fed meeting, you're looking at the wrong indicator. Track the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage-Treasury spread instead.