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30-Year Mortgage Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-02
TL;DR

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.53% and 10-Year Treasury Yield is 4.45% as of 2026-06-02. Compare the 30-year fixed mortgage rate against the 10-year Treasury yield over 25 years. Correlation analysis, lender spread, and what it means for home buyers.

Source: Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) · U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10)

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
6.53%
Live· 48m ago
2021-062026-05
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.45%
Live· 48m ago
2025-052026-05

The 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield move together almost lockstep. Over the last 25 years, their correlation has been approximately 0.91 — meaning about 83% of the variation in mortgage rates is explained by Treasury yields.

Why? Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) compete with Treasuries for investor capital. When Treasury yields rise, investors demand higher MBS yields to stay competitive, and lenders pass those costs to borrowers as higher mortgage rates. The gap between the two — the "mortgage spread" — typically sits around 1.5-2.0 percentage points during normal market conditions but widens sharply during stress (it exceeded 3 percentage points during the 2008 and 2020 crises).

For home buyers: watch the 10-year Treasury yield, not just Fed decisions. Treasury moves lead mortgage rate changes by 1-3 weeks. If you see the 10-year yield rise 0.5 percentage points, expect 30-year mortgage rates to follow within a month.

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Sources & Citations

  1. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate — Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
  2. 10-Year Treasury Yield — U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate come from Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US)[1]; values for 10-Year Treasury Yield come from U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The weekly cadence for 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate and daily cadence for 10-Year Treasury Yield mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) and [2] U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-02. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.