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10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury Yield (Yield Curve)

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-02
TL;DR

10-Year Treasury Yield is 4.45% and 2-Year Treasury Yield is unavailable as of 2026-06-02. When the 2-year Treasury yield exceeds the 10-year — a "yield curve inversion" — recession has followed every time since 1955.

Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10) · U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS2)

10-Year Treasury Yield
4.45%
Live· 48m ago
2025-052026-05
2-Year Treasury Yield
—
Unavailable· no data
2025-052026-05

The yield curve spread (10-year yield minus 2-year yield) is among the most-watched recession indicators. When short-term yields exceed long-term yields — an "inversion" — recession has followed within 6-24 months in every instance since 1955 (7 for 7).

Inversions in 2000 (tech bust), 2006 (housing crisis), 2019 (COVID), and 2022-2024 each preceded recessions or significant slowdowns. The lead time varies: typically 12-18 months from initial inversion to recession start.

Why does it work? Long-term yields reflect expected future growth + inflation + term premium. When they fall below short rates, markets are pricing in weaker future growth and Fed rate cuts to rescue the economy. For investors: a sustained inversion is a signal to review portfolio risk, not a trading signal in itself.

Related comparisons

  • 30-Year Mortgage Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield→
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  • CPI Inflation vs Federal Funds Rate→
  • Unemployment Rate vs CPI (Phillips Curve)→
  • WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Prices→

Sources & Citations

  1. 10-Year Treasury Yield — U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
  2. 2-Year Treasury Yield — U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS2) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for 10-Year Treasury Yield come from U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10)[1]; values for 2-Year Treasury Yield come from U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS2)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The daily cadence for 10-Year Treasury Yield and daily cadence for 2-Year Treasury Yield mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS10) and [2] U.S. Treasury via FRED (DGS2). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-02. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.