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Unemployment Rate vs CPI (Phillips Curve)

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-02
TL;DR

US Unemployment Rate is unavailable and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unavailable as of 2026-06-02. The classic Phillips Curve relationship between unemployment and inflation. Does it still hold? 25-year empirical analysis.

Source: BLS via FRED (UNRATE) · BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL)

US Unemployment Rate
—
Unavailable· no data
2016-062026-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
—
Unavailable· no data
2016-062026-04

The Phillips Curve posits an inverse relationship: low unemployment pushes wages up, which pushes inflation up. In theory, the Fed faces a trade-off — can't minimize both at the same time.

In practice over the last 25 years, this relationship has been much weaker than textbooks suggest. From 2010-2019, unemployment fell from 10% to 3.5% while CPI stayed near 2% — challenging the classic model. Then 2022-2024 saw both low unemployment AND high inflation, another break from the framework.

Modern economists attribute the decoupling to anchored inflation expectations, globalization, and labor market slack indicators beyond unemployment rate. For policy watchers: the Phillips Curve is a useful frame but not a reliable predictor. Watch CPI and unemployment independently rather than expecting mechanical inverse moves.

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Sources & Citations

  1. US Unemployment Rate — BLS via FRED (UNRATE) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
  2. Consumer Price Index (CPI) — BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for US Unemployment Rate come from BLS via FRED (UNRATE)[1]; values for Consumer Price Index (CPI) come from BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The monthly cadence for US Unemployment Rate and monthly cadence for Consumer Price Index (CPI) mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] BLS via FRED (UNRATE) and [2] BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-02. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.