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Bitcoin vs Fed Funds Rate (Monetary Conditions)

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-02
TL;DR

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) is 71321.00 and Federal Funds Rate is 3.62% as of 2026-06-02. Bitcoin has increasingly traded as a risk asset — falling when the Fed tightens, rising when the Fed eases.

Source: CoinGecko · Federal Reserve via FRED (DFF)

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD)
$71,321
Live· 1m ago
Federal Funds Rate
3.62%
Live· 0m ago
2025-092026-05

Bitcoin advocates frame it as "uncorrelated" with traditional markets. The data, at least since 2020, says otherwise.

When the Fed has been cutting rates and adding liquidity (2020-2021), Bitcoin has rallied alongside stocks. When the Fed tightens aggressively (2022), Bitcoin has sold off — sometimes more than stocks. The correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ tech stocks has exceeded 0.6 in recent years.

For portfolio construction: if you already hold growth/tech stocks, Bitcoin may add less diversification benefit than expected. During Fed tightening cycles, both tend to sell off together. For diversification, bonds historically provided better ballast during tightening cycles.

Related comparisons

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  • CPI Inflation vs Federal Funds Rate→
  • Unemployment Rate vs CPI (Phillips Curve)→
  • 10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury Yield (Yield Curve)→

Sources & Citations

  1. Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) — CoinGecko — www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
  2. Federal Funds Rate — Federal Reserve via FRED (DFF) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) come from CoinGecko[1]; values for Federal Funds Rate come from Federal Reserve via FRED (DFF)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The daily cadence for Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) and daily cadence for Federal Funds Rate mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] CoinGecko and [2] Federal Reserve via FRED (DFF). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-02. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.