The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gets the headlines, but the Federal Reserve actually targets Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation — specifically 2% core PCE.
Why the difference? Three main reasons: - PCE covers a broader basket (includes things employers pay on your behalf, like health insurance premiums) - PCE adjusts for consumer substitution (when beef prices rise, people switch to chicken — PCE weights reflect this; CPI is slower to update) - PCE re-weights categories more frequently
Typically PCE runs 0.3-0.5 percentage points below CPI. When CPI hits 3% and PCE hits 2.5%, the Fed is at target. When both exceed 3%, expect policy tightening.
For everyday decisions: CPI is fine for personal planning (it tracks what households actually experience in stores). For policy analysis: watch PCE.