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CPI vs PCE Inflation Index

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-01
TL;DR

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 332.41 and PCE Price Index is unavailable as of 2026-06-01. The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation, not CPI. Why the two measures differ and when to watch each.

Source: BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL) · BEA via FRED (PCEPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
332.41
Live· 0m ago
2016-062026-04
PCE Price Index
—
Unavailable· no data
2016-062026-04

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gets the headlines, but the Federal Reserve actually targets Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation — specifically 2% core PCE.

Why the difference? Three main reasons: - PCE covers a broader basket (includes things employers pay on your behalf, like health insurance premiums) - PCE adjusts for consumer substitution (when beef prices rise, people switch to chicken — PCE weights reflect this; CPI is slower to update) - PCE re-weights categories more frequently

Typically PCE runs 0.3-0.5 percentage points below CPI. When CPI hits 3% and PCE hits 2.5%, the Fed is at target. When both exceed 3%, expect policy tightening.

For everyday decisions: CPI is fine for personal planning (it tracks what households actually experience in stores). For policy analysis: watch PCE.

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Sources & Citations

  1. Consumer Price Index (CPI) — BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
  2. PCE Price Index — BEA via FRED (PCEPI) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for Consumer Price Index (CPI) come from BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL)[1]; values for PCE Price Index come from BEA via FRED (PCEPI)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The monthly cadence for Consumer Price Index (CPI) and monthly cadence for PCE Price Index mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL) and [2] BEA via FRED (PCEPI). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-01. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.