The Fed's dual mandate includes maximum employment. Historically, when unemployment rises above 5%, the Fed cuts rates. When unemployment falls below 4% with inflation above 2%, the Fed raises rates.
The last 25 years show this pattern clearly: rate cuts in 2001 (tech recession), 2008-2009 (financial crisis), 2020 (COVID) all came as unemployment spiked. Rate hikes in 2015-2019 and 2022-2024 came as unemployment fell to multi-decade lows.
For watching the Fed: unemployment is one of the two key inputs to rate decisions (along with inflation). Weekly jobless claims and monthly non-farm payrolls are the leading indicators of where unemployment rate will trend.