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US Gas Prices vs Crude Oil (WTI)

Written by Jere Salmisto, Founder & Quantitative Systems Builder, CalcFi·Reviewed by CalcFi Editorial·Last reviewed 2026-06-02
TL;DR

US Regular Gas Price (Weekly National Average) is unavailable and Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate) is unavailable as of 2026-06-02. Crude oil drives gas prices, but the relationship is lagged. What the spread tells you about refining margins.

Source: EIA via FRED (GASREGW) · EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO)

US Regular Gas Price (Weekly National Average)
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Unavailable· no data
2021-062026-06
Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate)
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Unavailable· no data

Crude oil is the primary input for gasoline, but the path from barrel to pump includes refining costs, taxes, and distribution. A 10 dollar move in WTI typically translates to about 25 cents per gallon at the pump, with a 2-4 week lag.

The "crack spread" — the gap between refined gas price and crude cost — fluctuates with refining capacity, seasonal demand (summer driving season pushes it up), and inventory levels. During 2022, refining margins hit multi-decade highs as post-COVID demand outpaced refining capacity.

For consumers: if you see WTI rise 10 dollars per barrel, budget for a 25 cent per gallon increase over the next month. Gas stations pass through crude increases faster than decreases, so prices are "sticky" on the way down.

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Sources & Citations

  1. US Regular Gas Price (Weekly National Average) — EIA via FRED (GASREGW) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW
  2. Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate) — EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO) — fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
  3. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — time-series archive for US macro indicators — fred.stlouisfed.org
  4. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, personal income, regional data — bea.gov
Methodology & Assumptions

Values for US Regular Gas Price (Weekly National Average) come from EIA via FRED (GASREGW)[1]; values for Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate) come from EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO)[2]. Both series are fetched at build time and refreshed every 24 hours via ISR.

The weekly cadence for US Regular Gas Price (Weekly National Average) and daily cadence for Crude Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate) mean the live value you see reflects the most recent public release, not a real-time quote.

Historical charts show the last 10 years (~260 trading days for daily series). Sparklines are visually uniform; small moves may be compressed.

Correlation and spread analyses (where present in the narrative) use Pearson correlation over the overlapping window.

CalcFi republishes publicly available government economic data[3][4] and does not provide financial advice.

Last reviewed reflects the most recent data point across both series; on ISR revalidation the visible date updates when new data arrives.

Data sourced from [1] EIA via FRED (GASREGW) and [2] EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO). Published by CalcFi Editorial. Last reviewed 2026-06-02. CalcFi publishes publicly available government economic data and does not provide financial advice.